#no yeah that’s what i thought at first
theory: Azulon didn’t order Ozai to kill Zuko. he ordered him to kill Azula
we don’t get to see onscreen what Azulon actually says. Ozai (who was there) and Azula (who was eavesdropping) are the only ones who ever relay this information to us and to the other characters. the only thing we the audience, as well as Zuko, get to hear is Azulon telling Ozai, “Your punishment has scarcely begun!” which seems to me that he was thinking up something truly nasty to do to Ozai.
Azulon didn’t look impressed during either Zuko or Azula’s firebending displays, suggesting he doesn’t really favor either of them. so he probably doesn’t have a personal reason to choose one kid to die instead of the other. Ozai, on the other hand, very obviously does, which Azulon probably would’ve picked up on by that point.
so, why order him to kill Zuko? it doesn’t really seem like that much of a punishment, given that Ozai has just shown he doesn’t care about his own son, not to mention his brother or deceased nephew. if Ozai follows the order and kills Zuko, then whenever Azulon dies and Iroh becomes Fire Lord, Ozai just has to get rid of Iroh, and he gets to be Fire Lord with his favored child as his heir.
from Azulon’s standpoint, forcing Ozai to kill Azula makes more sense. it’s a greater punishment, it leaves him with a child he views as a failure as his only heir, it ruins all the hard work he’s done so far to turn Azula into a success, and it reminds him of his place.
so when Azulon gives the order and Azula overhears, Ozai finds her after the meeting and instructs her to tell Zuko and Ursa that Azulon ordered Zuko’sdeath. why? so he can convince Ursa to get rid of Azulon for him. Azulon is gone, and Ursa is technically the one who did it, which gets her banished and frees Ozai up to treat the kids however he wants. including eventually getting rid of Zuko whenever the opportunity presents itself.
conclusion: Azulon ordered Ozai to kill Azula, Ozai had Azula lie and say Zuko was the target to get Ursa to kill the Fire Lord for him
