Like Mother, Like Daughter!

Nurie (Rodrigues) Keller is Already Expecting #2.

Holy smokes, Nurie (Rodrigues) Keller is pregnant again!  Her and Nathan’s 1st Child, Nehemiah, wasn’t even 6 Months Old when Nurie’s Mom, Jill Rodrigues, announced their2nd Pregnancy on April 5, 2022.  Wow, wow, wow!

After teasing the news with her typical ‘Announcement of an Announcement,’ Jill took to social media to share:  “Nathan [Keller] + Nurie are expecting Baby #2 in November 2022!  Nehemiah and the new baby will be 13 Months Apart!”  Jill then commented, “like mother, like daughter,” referencing the fact that she too has a history of incredibly closely–spaced pregnancies.  (Jill gave birth 13 Months Apart, or less, on four occasions.)

[ Permalink to the Announcement on InstagramandFacebook]

Read on for a full data analysis!

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

So far, all we know is that Nurie is due in November 2022.  Consistent with my rule for interpreting vague data like this,Duggar Data will use the mid–point of November, rounded—i.e., November 16, 2022—as Nurie’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), for the time being.

Come on, Jill!  Give us the actual Due Date, and I’ll update my spreadsheet!

Projected DOB + Child Spacing

Last time, Nurie gave birth 1 Day Early; Nehemiah’s Due Date was October 12, 2021, and he arrived on October 11th.  The Predictor assumes she’ll give birth 1 Day Early again.  Given that, and her ADD of November 16, 2022, the baby’s Projected DOBisNovember 15, 2022.

Nehemiah (#1) was born on October 11, 2021.  If Keller–Rodrigues #2 actually arrives on November 15, 2022, that’d be a Child Spacingof400 Days, which can only be described as “impressively fast.”  That is faster than the recently–discussed 402–Day Spacing between Charlotte Smith and Smith #4.  And, it’s faster than, well, almost every spacing in my spreadsheets.  Here is the full list of faster Child Spacings, excluding Firstborn, Post–Loss, Post–Cesarean, and Theoretical (Due to Pregnancy Loss) Spacings, or otherwise atypical data…

• 331 Days   Jill Rodrigues (Nurie to Timothy)
• 348 Days   Jill Rodrigues (Kaylee to Renee)
• 361 Days   Courtney Rogers (Caydie to Coralee)
• 363 Days   Courtney Rogers (Case to Callie) (Adjusted Due To Callie’s Premature Birth; It Was Actually Shorter)
• 371 Days   Courtney Rogers (Cash to Colt / Case) (Adjusted Due To The Twins’ Premature Birth; It Was Actually Shorter)
• 389 Days   Kelly Jo Bates (Zach to Michaela)
• 397 Days   Courtney Rogers (Calena to Caydie)
• 398 Days   Kelly Jo Bates (Lawson to Nathan)
• 398 Days   Anna Marie Maxwell (Ruthanne to Lydia)
• 399 Days   Jill Rodrigues (Renee to Phillip)

Yeah.  That’s it.  Just 10 Spacings shorter than 400 Days.  And, 33% of those are from Nurie’s Mother (Jill Rodrigues), with a decent chunk of the rest being from Courtney Rogers, whose Procreative Pace (PP) is truly legendary.  Note that not even Michelle Duggar made this list!(Edit, May 13: Whoops! My bad! Totally overlooked one of Michelle’s! She did make the list. Jinger–to–Joseph was 396 Days.)

All this to say…  Watch out.  Nurie’s on a roll. 

Early, Late, or What?  

Unsurprisingly, given the 400–Day Projected Spacing…  Early.  After Nehemiah was born, Nurie + Nathan’s Procreative Pace (PP) was set at 466 to 688 Days, or ~15.3 to 22.6 Months, depending on whether we used the Rodrigues Data, Keller Data, or both.  At any rate, 400 Days is faster than what any of the data sets forecasted…  They are 66 Days Early (9 Weeks), if you use the Rodrigues Data; 285 Days Early (9.4 Months), if you use the Kellers’ Data; and 248 Days Early (8 Months), if you use both families’ data.

When Will They Announce The Sex?

Last time, Nurie + Nathan (via J–Rod) did a Sex Reveal at 163 Days Along (23 Weeks, 2 Days).  The Predictor assumes they’ll do the same, this time around.  Based on Keller–Rodrigues #2′s ADD of November 16, 2022, Nurie will be 163 Days Along on June 22, 2022, so that’s when the Sex Reveal is expected.

2nd Child Multiplier

Nurie + Nathan married on July 25, 2020, and Nehemiah David (#1) was born 443 Days Later, on October 11, 2021.  Their 2nd Child is forecast to arrive on November 15, 2022, just 400 Days after Nehi.  Comparing their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing to their projected Child #1–to–Child #2 Spacing, their 2nd Child Spacing is 0.9029x their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing.  

You heard that right; their 2nd Child Spacing is going to be be less than their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing.  Wild.

As for the effect on the Rodrigues and Keller 2nd Child Multipliers…  Prior to Keller–Rodrigues #2, the Rodrigues 2nd Child Multiplier—which was 100% based on J–Rod + David, since that was the only data we had—was 1.0712x.  Factoring in Nurie + Nathan, that shifts to 0.9721x (–9%).  Meanwhile, over in Camp Keller, the prior Quiverfull Keller 2nd Child Multiplier—based on Mike + Suzette, Esther + John, Priscilla + David, and Anna + Josh—was 1.6312x.  It shifts to 1.4002x (–14%), once Nurie + Nathan are factored in.

Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

Since they only have 1 Non–Firstborn Spacing, Nurie + Nathan’s Procreative Pace (PP) is based entirely on that datum, for now.  As such, their PP is now equal to their Projected 2nd Spacing of 400 Days (~13 Months).

Unsurprisingly, this rapid–fire PP yields a really highESOQ…  An ESOQ of 17 Children, to be exact.  That’s up from the 10–14 Children, depending on data set, that was predicted immediately after Nehemiah’s birth.

We’ll see, if course. That’s really fast. I’m doubtful.

When To Expect Keller–Rodrigues #3

Note that, from this point on, we won’t have to pick which data set to rely on for Nurie + Nathan, since we can simply use their own prior data.  Hurray!  Based on their data, here’s what the Predictor expects w/ regard to Baby #3—

• Baby News   May 6, 2023  (Baby #2 will be ~6 Months Old.)
• Sex Reveal August 26, 2023
• Due Date   December 21, 2023
• Projected DOB   December 20, 2023