OnMay 3, 2022, John Shrader revealed that his wife—Esther (Keller) Shrader, Older Sister of Anna (Keller) Duggar, Priscilla (Keller) Waller, Nathan Keller, etc.—is pregnant once again. The Pregnancy Announcement was included in the Shrader’s bi–monthly “prayer letter,” which they use to provide updates about their long–term mission in Zambia. (They’ve been living in Zambia, serving as missionaries, since June 2014.) John wrote in the letter—
This will be John + Esther’s 13th Child. She or he will join 4 Sisters (Alatheia, Agape, Charis, and Sophia) and 8 Brothers (Enoch, Timothy, Nehemiah, Elijah, Stephen, Isaiah, Caleb, and Joseph), ranging from 2–19 Years Old.
Read on for a full data analysis.
Approximate Due Date (ADD)
According to John, the baby’s “estimated arrival” will be in Early October 2022. Taking this to mean Esther’s Due Date is in Early October, Duggar Data will use October 5, 2022 as her Approximate Due Date (ADD), for now.(SeeDuggar Data’s Rule for Interpreting Vague Data.)
Note that, technically, John didn’t say that Ester is due in Early October. All he actually said is that that is when the baby is “estimated” to “arriv[e].” So, there is a chance that Esther is actually due in Late September. (She usually delivers fairly late.) Still… October 5, 2022 will be the ADD, unless we get better data.
(Note—Several of the citations above are to Free Jinger, where members have copy–pasted or are discussing posts on John’s Facebook. The reason for this is that the Facebook Posts no longer exist… Since then, John has deleted his Facebook, then created a brand new account—so, there is nothing left to cite, except the quotes preserved on Free Jinger.)
Anyway… Based on that data, Esther gives birth 10 Days Late, on average. If she delivers 10 Days Late again, Shrader #13’s Projected DOB isOctober 15, 2022. Finally, Joseph (Shrader #12) arrived on March 8, 2020—so, that gives us a ProjectedChild Spacing of951 Days (~31 Months). This is Esther + John’s largest Child Spacing, to date; it beats out the previous record, set by Joseph, by 155 Days (~5 Months).
Given her Fertility–Cut Off of Age 43.3—which based on her mother’s data— Esther has time for only one more pregnancy, after Shrader–Keller #13… Her and John’s ESOQis, thus, 14 Children.
Will There Be A Shrader–Keller #14?
Here’s what the Predictor is currently predicting—
Holy smokes, Nurie (Rodrigues) Keller is pregnant again! Her and Nathan’s 1st Child, Nehemiah, wasn’t even 6 Months Old when Nurie’s Mom, Jill Rodrigues, announced their2nd Pregnancy on April 5, 2022. Wow, wow, wow!
After teasing the news with her typical ‘Announcement of an Announcement,’ Jill took to social media to share: “Nathan [Keller] + Nurie are expecting Baby #2 in November 2022! Nehemiah and the new baby will be 13 Months Apart!” Jill then commented, “like mother, like daughter,” referencing the fact that she too has a history of incredibly closely–spaced pregnancies. (Jill gave birth 13 Months Apart, or less, on four occasions.)
So far, all we know is that Nurie is due in November 2022. Consistent with my rule for interpreting vague data like this,Duggar Data will use the mid–point of November, rounded—i.e., November 16, 2022—as Nurie’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), for the time being.
Come on, Jill! Give us the actual Due Date, and I’ll update my spreadsheet!
Projected DOB + Child Spacing
Last time, Nurie gave birth 1 Day Early; Nehemiah’s Due Date was October 12, 2021, and he arrived on October 11th. The Predictor assumes she’ll give birth 1 Day Early again. Given that, and her ADD of November 16, 2022, the baby’s Projected DOBisNovember 15, 2022.
Nehemiah (#1) was born on October 11, 2021. If Keller–Rodrigues #2 actually arrives on November 15, 2022, that’d be a Child Spacingof400 Days, which can only be described as “impressively fast.” That is faster than the recently–discussed 402–Day Spacing between Charlotte Smith and Smith #4. And, it’s faster than, well, almost every spacing in my spreadsheets. Here is the full list of faster Child Spacings, excluding Firstborn, Post–Loss, Post–Cesarean, and Theoretical (Due to Pregnancy Loss) Spacings, or otherwise atypical data…
331 Days Jill Rodrigues (Nurie to Timothy)
348 Days Jill Rodrigues (Kaylee to Renee)
361 Days Courtney Rogers (Caydie to Coralee)
363 Days Courtney Rogers (Case to Callie) (Adjusted Due To Callie’s Premature Birth; It Was Actually Shorter)
371 Days Courtney Rogers (Cash to Colt / Case) (Adjusted Due To The Twins’ Premature Birth; It Was Actually Shorter)
389 Days Kelly Jo Bates (Zach to Michaela)
397 Days Courtney Rogers (Calena to Caydie)
398 Days Kelly Jo Bates (Lawson to Nathan)
398 Days Anna Marie Maxwell (Ruthanne to Lydia)
399 Days Jill Rodrigues (Renee to Phillip)
Yeah. That’s it. Just 10 Spacings shorter than 400 Days. And, 33% of those are from Nurie’s Mother (Jill Rodrigues), with a decent chunk of the rest being from Courtney Rogers, whose Procreative Pace (PP) is truly legendary. Note that not even Michelle Duggar made this list!(Edit, May 13: Whoops! My bad! Totally overlooked one of Michelle’s! She did make the list. Jinger–to–Joseph was 396 Days.)
All this to say… Watch out. Nurie’s on a roll.
Early, Late, or What?
Unsurprisingly, given the 400–Day Projected Spacing… Early. After Nehemiah was born, Nurie + Nathan’s Procreative Pace (PP) was set at 466 to 688 Days, or ~15.3 to 22.6 Months, depending on whether we used the Rodrigues Data, Keller Data, or both. At any rate, 400 Days is faster than what any of the data sets forecasted… They are 66 Days Early (9 Weeks), if you use the Rodrigues Data; 285 Days Early (9.4 Months), if you use the Kellers’ Data; and 248 Days Early (8 Months), if you use both families’ data.
When Will They Announce The Sex?
Last time, Nurie + Nathan (via J–Rod) did a Sex Reveal at 163 Days Along (23 Weeks, 2 Days). The Predictor assumes they’ll do the same, this time around. Based on Keller–Rodrigues #2′s ADD of November 16, 2022, Nurie will be 163 Days Along on June 22, 2022, so that’s when the Sex Reveal is expected.
You heard that right; their 2nd Child Spacing is going to be be less than their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing. Wild.
As for the effect on the Rodrigues and Keller 2nd Child Multipliers… Prior to Keller–Rodrigues #2, the Rodrigues 2nd Child Multiplier—which was 100% based on J–Rod + David, since that was the only data we had—was 1.0712x. Factoring in Nurie + Nathan, that shifts to 0.9721x (–9%). Meanwhile, over in Camp Keller, the prior Quiverfull Keller 2nd Child Multiplier—based on Mike + Suzette, Esther + John, Priscilla + David, and Anna + Josh—was 1.6312x. It shifts to 1.4002x (–14%), once Nurie + Nathan are factored in.
Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Since they only have 1 Non–Firstborn Spacing, Nurie + Nathan’s Procreative Pace (PP) is based entirely on that datum, for now. As such, their PP is now equal to their Projected 2nd Spacing of 400 Days (~13 Months).
We’ll see, if course. That’s really fast. I’m doubtful.
When To Expect Keller–Rodrigues #3
Note that, from this point on, we won’t have to pick which data set to rely on for Nurie + Nathan, since we can simply use their own prior data. Hurray! Based on their data, here’s what the Predictor expects w/ regard to Baby #3—
Baby News May 6, 2023 (Baby #2 will be ~6 Months Old.)
Assuming the ADD is correct, Esther was 119 Days Along (Exactly 17 Weeks), when she announced.
Just for laughs, let’s see when Esther would be due if she and Nathan’s Baby News was exactly typically–timed, by Bates standards… Immediately prior to their Pregnancy Announcement, it was Bates–typical to reveal a pregnancy at 84 Days Along (Exactly 12 Weeks). For Firstborns, it was typical to announce slightly later, at 108 Days Along. If Esther had announced at 84 Days Along, a Mother’s Day Pregnancy Announcement would correspond w/ a November 20 Due Date. If she’d announced at 108 Days Along, typical for 1st Pregnancies, she’d be due on October 27, 2022. Basically, their Pregnancy Announcement was made slightly later in the pregnancy than expected, but more–or–less on–time for a 1st Pregnancy.
Projected DOB + Firstborn Spacing
Currently, it is Bates–typical to deliver 8 Days Early. (Note—Deliveries at <37 Weeks are excluded as outliers, in calculating that. That is basically all of the Bates–Paine births, and one of Kelly’s.) There’s insufficient data to calculate what’s “Keyes–typical” in terms of delivery timing. (Darn!)
If Esther’s delivery is Bates–typical, as the Predictor expects, she’ll deliver 8 Days Early. If she’s actually due on October 16th, then Baby Bates–Keyes’s Projected DOBisOctober 8, 2022. That’s what we’ll use, for now!
Nathan + Esther’s Wedding occurred on October 22, 2021. If their Firstborn makes his or her appearance on October 8, 2022, as forecast, they’ll have a Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacingof351 Days (or, 11.5 Months). Here’s how that stacks up w/ the other Bates Couples—
251 Days Carlin + Evan
287 Days Josie + Kelton
318 Days Erin + Chad (Note—Theoretical. Based on Marriage–to–Firstborn, had Erin not miscarried her 1st Pregnancy.)
319 Days Zach + Whitney
322 Days Alyssa + John
328 Days Tori + Bobby
351 Days Nathan + Esther
377 Days Gil + Kelly Jo
No Data Yet Katie + Travis and Unmarried Couples (Lawson + Tiffany and Trace + Lydia)
Factoring Nathan + Esther’s data in, the Bateses’ Overall Marriage–to–Child #1 Spacing shifted from 315 Days to 319 Days (+4 Days) (~10.5 Months).
(As a result of this change, Katie + Travis’s Firstborn is now expected to arrive on October 18, 2022—but, if so, they’re a few weeks late to announce… Stay tuned, I guess!)
Early, Late, or What?
As mentioned directly above, prior to Nathan + Esther’s Baby News, a ‘typical’ Bates Couple became parents after 315 Days of marriage. Nathan + Esther’s Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing is projected to be a bit longer than that, at 351 Days, so that means they’re 36 Days Late. The Standard Deviation (SD) was 39 Days, though, so that’s well within the normal range. (It’s 0.9 SDs Late.)
When Will They Announce The Sex?
There’s a very, very good chance that’s they’ll do a Sex Reveal… The Bateses always do. Currently, it’s Bates–typical to do a Sex Reveal at 141 Days Along (20 Weeks, 1 Days). If she’d actually due on October 16th, Esther will be that far along on May 30, 2022.
Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Now that we have data for their 1st Pregnancy, Nathan + Esther’s Procreative Pace (PP) will be based on on their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing, multiplied by the Bates 2nd Child Multiplier. (The 2nd Child Multiplier is a representation of the average difference between a couple’s 1st and 2nd Child Spacings.) As of now, the Bates 2nd Child Multiplier is 1.7754x. Multiplying that by Nathan + Esther’s projected Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (351 Days), that’s 623 Days, or ~20.5 Months. That is their Procreative Pace (PP), going forward.
With a Procreative Pace of 623 Days and a Fertility Cut–Off for Esther of 44.41 Years—based on her mother’s data—Nathan + Esther’s ESOQ is 12 Children. That’s down from 15 Children, immediately after they married. But… Keep in mind, we can expect potentially large shifts if the Bateses 2nd Child Multiplier ends up not being a good predictor of their future spacing. (Things are always a little sketchy when you’re relying entirely on the Multiplier.)
When To Expect Bates–Keyes #2
Based on available data, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—
Per the Pregnancy Announcement, Duggar–Burnett #2 is due in “late summer.” Duggar Data would general defines “summer” as the months of June, July, and August, inclusive—but still, “late summer” is pretty vague. So, let’s take a look at the data, and see if it helps us narrow things down…
John + Abbie have had one prior pregnancy (Gracie). That time, they revealed the pregnancy on August 1, 2019. Gracie’s Due Date was January 12, 2020—so, Abbie was 116 Days Along when they went public the pregnancy. If Abbie was also 116 Days Along this time around, her May 8, 2022 would correspond to a Due Date of October 17, 2022. Obviously, that’s not right, since they said the baby’s due in “late summer.” So… The data doesn’t help us much.
With nothing but “late summer” to go on, Duggar Data is going to use August 31, 2022 as Abbie’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), for the time being. I chose that date because it’s about as “late summer” as you can get.
Projected DOB + Child Spacing
With Gracie, Abbie gave birth 5 Days Early (on January 7, with a Due Date of January 12 per Counting On). With an ADD of August 31—and assuming she delivers 5 Days Early again—that’s a Projected DOB of August 26, 2022.
Grace was born on January 7, 2020. If Duggar–Burnett #2 arrives on August 26, 2022, that’s a Child Spacing of962 Days (2.63 Years). This is one of the longest Child Spacings ever for a 2nd–Generation Duggar Couple. (Actually, the only longer one is the Theoretical Spacing for Sam–to–River Bliss Dillard, had Jill not miscarried. That would’ve been ~1,711 Days.)
Definitely late. Based on John + Abbie’s Wedding–to–Firstborn Spacing (430 Days) and the current (until their Pregnancy Announcement) Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier (1.5688x), the Duggar–Burnetts would have been expected to have a Gracie–to–Baby #2 Spacing of 675 Days. If so, they would’ve welcomed Baby #2 on November 12, 2021.
Obviously, that didn’t happen! Now that they’ve announced, it looks like they will welcome Baby #2 on August 26, 2022 instead, which is 287 Days (or 9.4 Months) Later than the 2nd Child Multiplier’s forecast… That’s definitely late!
Impact on 2nd Child Multiplier
Grace arrived 430 Days after John + Abbie’s Wedding. Duggar–Burnett #2 is expected to arrive 962 Days after Gracie. Comparing 962 Days to 430 Days, John + Abbie’s 2nd Child Spacing is 2.2372xtheir Marriage–to–#1 Spacing.
Immediately prior to John + Abbie’s 2nd Pregnancy Reveal, the Duggars’ 2nd Child Multiplier was 1.5688x, on average. Each Duggar Couple’s Multiplier— from largest to smallest—is as follows…
2.5294x Jill + Derick
2.2372x John + Abbie
1.9524x Joy + Austin
1.8755x Joe + Kendra
1.5199x John + Anna
1.2439x Jessa + Ben
1.1320x Jinger + Jeremy
No Data Jed + Katey, Jer + Hannah, Justin + Claire
As you can see, John + Abbie’s 2nd Child Multiplier is second largest, after Jill + Derick’s. When John + Abbie’s is averaged in with the rest, the Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier shifts from 1.5688x to 1.7131x(+9%).
Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
John + Abbie’s Procreative Pace (PP) is now based entirely on their Projected Grace–to–Baby #2 Spacing, since that’s their only Non–Firstborn Spacing.
Hello fans. My soon to be husband is pregnant, and we found out yesterday. We would have kept updating you all if it we’re not for the literal waterfall of joy and nervousness that Jack and I emitted afterwards.
Hello fans. My soon to be husband is pregnant, and we found out yesterday. We would have kept updating you all if it we’re not for the literal waterfall of joy and nervousness that Jack and I emitted afterwards.
Hello fans. My soon to be husband is pregnant, and we found out yesterday. We would have kept updating you all if it we’re not for the literal waterfall of joy and nervousness that Jack and I emitted afterwards.
Word Count: 1002 (unedited) Pairing: Cullen x Unnamed Female Inquisitor Rating: PG-13 Warnings: One use of the ‘f’ word, Pregnancy announcement, implied nudity
The morning sun rises far earlier than Cullen was prepared for. He blinks awake, cheek pressed into the pillow, and he groans, deciding that he doesn’t want to move for the next…forever. It’s easier, he thinks, to just pretend like the work would just stay downstairs if he simply refused to get up. Thankfully, he isn’t training any of the soldiers today - he’s got a War Room meeting in the afternoon, and is up to his gills in paperwork, but his bed is so warm, and the lull of sleep is already calling back to him.
“Good night’s rest, love?”
Cullen just smiles tiredly, eyes still shut as his head lulls to the side, following her voice. “Best I’ve had in weeks, thanks to you.” He finally opens his eyes, sitting up some, drinking her in. He smiles - he knew that the Inquisitor was a beautiful woman from the moment he laid eyes on her, fell a little bit in love with her the first time she approached him back at Haven.
She’d been just as stumbling and awkward as he felt, and he couldn’t believe that the supposed ‘Chosen of the Maker’ was sparing him the time of day, outside of Inquisition matters, of course. Everything they do, is for the Inquisition.
“You’re just saying that to make me feel better.” She smiles at him, lopsided and sweet. He’d only seen her in battle once, and in training countless times, and learned that all the stories were true - she was a fierce adversary, and a hailstorm of power. But moments like these almost convinced Cullen that she’d never seen a day of hardship in her life, that she holds nothing but memories of tenderness and love.
Then her hand touches his, and he feels the hard calluses, sees the weariness in her eyes, and he’s glad that he can help the softness, at least for a short while.
“I could certainly get used to this view in the mornings.” He smiles, awkward and shy, though much more confident since the moment she’d finally approached him - that day, their kiss on the battlements. He had been so certain no kiss would ever exceed it, but every kiss between them was just as electric, just as sweet.
Cullen never thought he deserved sweet. He didn’t deserve the softness, didn’t deserve the smiles and the jokes, the way she looked at him. He didn’t deserve the glances he caught at the War Table, didn’t deserve the kisses she stole from him across his desk. He didn’t deserve to touch her, to look at the little coin she wore round her throat, to remind her of him.
She liked to remind herself of him, while she was away.
He hated when she left, when she took her small party to whatever reach of Ferelden or Orlais the Inquisition dragged her, but he knew that it was necessary - the Greater Good, and all that.
She kisses him again, smiling at him. “What’s got you in such a good mood?”
“Like you don’t already know.” Cullen chuckles, kissing her again, rubbing small circles into her thighs. “Mm, I wish you could stay here every night.”
“I will, soon.” She promises, straddling him, hands on his chest, “Every night, you and me and…”
It was time for them to rush Corypheus. It was time, the moment they’d all been waiting for. He was so worried for her, that he would lose her, but he couldn’t just…how was he supposed to tell her, that he was worried he would lose her, everything they’d worked for.
“You and me.” She smiles, nose pressed to his, kissing him again. “And our baby.”
Cullen’s heart nose dives right to his stomach and his eyes widen, “Our…?” His throat dries and he looks down to her stomach, “Our baby?”
She nods, unmarked hand on his cheek, her smile tentative, “Our baby.”
He kisses her, suddenly, arms around her, holding her in his lap. He laughs, smiling wider than he thought he ever could, “Our baby.” He repeats, quietly, reverently. Then, he tenses, “You’re really pregnant? Now?”
He thinks of Corypheus. He thinks of all the worst things that could happen to her, like he has a million times before - red Templars and rogue mages and demons and the fucking rifts. He wants to keep her safe, to keep her within the walls of Skyhold, but he knows that that isn’t a possibility, in spite of her…condition. She is the Inquisitor, and she is supposedly destined to save the world.
Cullen couldn’t bear the thought of losing her.
“I know.” She says, “But…I am. We’re having a baby.”
He can be worried later. He kisses her again, holding her close. It is soft, and sweet, and the moment is far more tender than Cullen is used to. “I love you.” He promises, “I love them.” He couldn’t imagine how terrified she was. She needed him to be strong right now - his fears could wait. Cullen knew that the last thing she needed was a groveling mess. He was happy - he’d always wanted to start a family, and the Inquisitor, his love, was the only person he trusted - loved - enough.
She smiles, hands on his cheeks, and he can feel the anchor pulsate, “I love you, Cullen. So, so very much.” He presses a soft kiss to the familiar green mark, and smiles against her hand.
He would pray today, he decides. He doesn’t have any pressing matters to attend to until this evening, and the paperwork could wait. They need whatever luck they could get, and he would do anything to keep her safe.
He wanted to be there with her, on the front lines. But, just like her, he had his role to play. He was the Commander, the Force behind the Inquisition. He would stand behind her, ensure that she was as safe as he could possibly ensure. For her. For him. For their baby.
