#yankees

Twitter discovered the beard judge photo I made a few years ago

Absolutely adorable

Andrew “the squid” Velazquez more like Andrew “new daddy” Velazquez. Amirite, ladies.

He’s so dreamy.

judgejamesaaron:

Did judge get his gap fixed??!????!

Idk how I feel about it yet.

Did judge get his gap fixed??!????!

Big Daddy is here!

I know I haven’t posted in a minute but wtf is Cashman doing.

Sign Gardy!

How dare he let Paxton go.

Wtf happened to Khanle?????

Give Torres more money.

I love Stanton buy why is that mofo still here?

ByAdam Cancryn

A primer on who’s a contender in 2014, and who isn’t, using Fangraphs WAR.

Through six innings on a sunny Opening Day in New York, the Mets kept it together. 

They entered the seventh frame up 4-2 on the Washington Nationals, thanks in large part to a three-run homer from left fielder Andrew Brown. Starter Dillon Gee struck out the first batter, allowed a single, but got the second out on a fielder’s choice.

And then, disaster.

Gee allowed a run. Reliever Carlos Torres replaced him and walked the only batter he faced. Scott Rice then spelled him and walked the only batter he faced. By the time his replacement, Jose Valverde, recorded the final out, the score was tied at 4.

Which, in the end, didn’t look so bad after three different Mets relievers managed to blow the entire game two innings later.

It would be a 9-7 loss, and despite its ups and downs, perhaps one of the more predictable results from today’s MLB slate. That’s because the Mets’ pitching staff is one of the least valuable units in the game, according to 2014 projections compiled by Fangraphs.

New York’s pitchers are projected to contribute just 6.5 wins above replacement, the statistic used to summarize players’ total contributions to a team’s success above the average level (think of it as the amount of value each player adds above a leaguewide baseline). That’s worse than every other team except the Houston Astros, who clock in at a miserable 5.8 WAR.

On the flip side, the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox boast the most valuable pitching staffs. The Tigers, led by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, project for 21 WAR from their pitching this year. The Sox’ staff projects to 20.3 WAR.

Of course, it helps that the Sox and Tigers are considered statistically the two best teams this year. Break down their pitching staffs as a percentage of their total WAR, and you find that they’re relatively well balanced. 

In fact, the they’re two of the most balanced teams out there. The Sox rely on position players for 53.7% of their WAR, while the Tigers’ position players are expected to account for 51.5% of total WAR. That means that the teams are nearly equally threatening from both sides of the ball. Other evenly weighted teams include the Yankees (54.02% of WAR coming from position players) and Chicago White Sox (53.2%).

The worst balance? That’d be the Mets again, who are predicted to rely on their position players for nearly 75% of their total value. The Brewers, powered by Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun, could get 72.1% of their WAR from position players.

How about one more that’ll come in handy once the injury bug hits. Here is how valuable teams’ cores (their four best position players or three best starting pitchers) are to their overall success. 

For example, the Brewers’ top four position players are projected to supply nearly half of the team’s total value this season. The Marlins and Angels (8.9 projected WAR from Mike Trout) are in the same boat, meaning any major injury to that core could significantly hamper their playoff chances. On the pitching side, the Tigers, White Sox and Yankees are particularly dependent on their top three starters. 

By this measure, teams like the Red Sox, White Sox and Indians get more of their total value from more sources, making them less vulnerable to significant industries. 

So what does all this tell us? First, that the Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers and Nationals are the favorites in the AL and NL, respectively. Both the Sox and the Tigers have a relatively well-balanced attack, giving them more ways to reliably win games. The Rangers and Yankees are also well-balanced contenders.

But if a disastrous injury hits, the Tigers and Yankees are most susceptible among top contenders to a big dropoff in talent. The Sox and second-tier playoff possibilities like the A’s and Cardinals are likely to be better equipped to plug unexpected holes, given the lower amount of WAR tied up in their seven best players. 

And for Mets fans, it means that what happened on Opening Day could become a familiar sight. If New York’s offense doesn’t shoulder its disproportionate responsibility for the team’s projected success, things could get real bad, real quick. 

But hey, there’s always 2015, and the return of Matt Harvey, whose WAR last year (6.1) is nearly equal to the projected value of the rest of the staff.

All data as of March 27.

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Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in ‘96.

Cute Yankees girl