Defying all expectation, Jed Duggar procreated without naming his child after himself. His and Wife Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar’s Firstborn, Jedidiah Jr.Truett Oliver Duggar, was born on Monday, May 2, 2022, 6:34 PM, at Willow Creek Women’s Hospital in Johnson, AR. He weighed 8 Pounds, 5 Ounces (3.8 kg), and was 20.5 Inches (52.1 cm) long.
Read on for Baby True’s impact on Jed + Katey’s and the Duggar Data!
When Was Katey’s Due Date?
Katey’s Due Date was, apparently, May 2, 2022. Though Jed initially indicated she was due in April 2022, it seems her Due Date changed to May 2nd. Jed + Katey’s Baby Registry on Amazon listed a Due Date of May 2, 2022, and their Birth Video confirmed that date: Early in Part 1, Jed + Katey are seen in a car, having “just finished church,” and Katey says that her Due Date is “tomorrow.” Later in the video, it becomes clear that that exchange happened the morning of the day Katey went to the hospital to be induced. Given that they had “just finished up church,” it seems that that must’ve been on Sunday, May 1, 2022, which means Katey’s Due Date was May 2nd, just as the registry indicated.
(Also, later in Part 1, Jed confirms that they went in to be induced the evening of May 1, 2022. After they’d been at hospital for a few hours, Jed said for the camera: “It’s 1:30 [AM] right now, on May 2nd.”)
Duggar Data considers May 2, 2022 to be “confirmed” as the Due Date.
Pregnancy Announcement Timing
The Duggar–Nakatsus announced this pregnancy via Instagramand YouTube on September 5, 2021. Due May 2, 2022, Katey was only 41 Days Along—5 Weeks, 6 Days—at the time. (Wow, that’s an early announcement!)
Actually… Jed + Katey set a record, here. No Duggar Couple had gone public with a pregnancy so early in the pregnancy. They beat the next–earliest reveal (Jim Bob + Michelle w/ Jordyn–Grace) by 2 Days. And, looking just at the 2nd Generation Couples, they beat thatrecord by 19 Days. (Josh + Anna revealed two of her pregnancies—MichaelandMeredith—at 60 Days Along.)
Prior to Jed + Katey’s 1st Pregnancy Announcement, it was Duggar–typical to announce a pregnancy at 95 Days Along (13 Weeks, 4 Days). Couples tended to announce 1st Pregnancies slightly earlier than that, at 92 Days Along. With Jed + Katey’s data, this shifted to 93 Days Along (–2 Days),in general, and to 86 Days (–6 Days) for 1st Pregnancies. Since then, there have been two more [Non–1st] Pregnancy Announcements, which further shifted things—
Jed + Katey posted Truett’s Sex Reveal on YouTube on January 7, 2022. (It’s not relevant to the data, but it appears that they recorded the video weeks or maybe months prior to that. They just didn’t release it until January 7.) When the video went live, Katey was 165 Days Along (23 Weeks, 4 Days).
Prior to Jed + Katey’s Sex Reveal, it was Duggar–typical to do a Sex Reveal at 149 Days Along (21 Weeks, 2 Days). Jed + Katey’s data shifted it to 150 Days Along (+1 Day). Since then, Jill + Derick and John + Abbie have shifted things again, as follows—
As for Truett’s name, Jed + Katey waited until birth to reveal it, which is typical for the Duggars. To date, only 2 GrandDuggars have had their name revealed prior to birth—Mackynzie Renee Duggar–Keller, and Samuel Scott Dillard.
[Click Here for a Full, if Slightly Outdated, Post Re: Duggar Name Reveals ]
Again, this is a Duggar first! Until now, no GrandDuggar (or Duggar) had ever arrived on his or her Due Date, though some came close… Felicity Vuolo and Maryella Duggar–Keller were both 1 Day Early, while Gideon Fosryth and Fern Seewald were both 1 Day Late.
Prior to True’s arrival, the typical Duggar arrived 2 Days Early [1.82]. Factoring in True, it remains 2 Days Early [1.74](No Significant Change).
Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing
True was born on May 2, 2022. Jed + Katey got married on April 3, 2021—so, that’s a Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing of 394 Days (~13 Months). Here’s how that Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing stacks up w/ the rest of the Duggars—
621 Days Jinger + Jeremy
430 Days John + Abbie
394 Days Jed + Katey
377 Days Josh + Anna
369 Days Jessa + Ben
331 Days Josiah + Lauren (Note—This is theoretical, based on Due Date of Lauren’s 1st Pregnancy, which ended in miscarriage.)
289 Days Jill + Derick
273 Days Joy + Austin, Joe + Kendra
As you can see, Jed + Katey are actually the 3rd Slowest—even though their Firstborn arrived <13 Months after their marriage. That’s wild…
Prior to Jed + Katey, it was typical for a newly–married Duggar to welcome a child after 370 Days. Factoring in Jed + Katey’s data, that shifts to 373 Days (+3 Days). It’s not much, but that’s a slight slow–down!
Procreative Pace / Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ)
The Predictor uses a variable called Procreative Pace (PP) to determine future Child Spacing. When possible, PP is based on a couple’s own Child Spacing data, excluding Firstborn Spacing and Post–Loss Spacings, since those Child Spacing types tend to be poor indicators of a couple’s ‘typical’ pace.
Here, as with all 1 Child Couples, there are no Non–Firstborn, Non–Post–Loss Child Spacing data points. Thus, we have to use another method to estimate PP. The method Duggar Data uses is the 2nd Child Multiplier… The 2nd Child Multiplier is essentially the average difference between couples’ Marriage–to–Firstborn and 1st–to–2nd Child Spacings. (Basically, it represents how much longer your ‘typical’ Duggar, Bates, etc., Couple takes to go from Baby #1 to Baby #2, as compared to how long it took to go from Marriage to #1.)
On May 2, 2022 (True’s DOB), the Duggars’ 2nd Child Multiplier was 1.5688x. As such, Jed + Katey’s Procreative Pace (PP) would’ve been 618 Days, since that’s the result of multiplying their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (394 Days) by 1.5688. But, between True’s DOB and now, there has been new data that shifted the 2nd Child Multiplier: John + Abbie announced her 2nd Pregnancy on May 8, 2022, giving rise to new data that shifted the Multiplier from 1.5688 to 1.7131. Applying the new Multiplier to Jed + Katey’s Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing, their Procreative Pace (PP) is now 675 Days (~22 Months).
For a break in our depressing regular scheduled fundie content, let‘s make a stupid fun post about which fundie couples, in my opinion, reached, settled, or are evenly matched. Note that this is based not just on looks but on personalities and general kind of.. whether they have stuff figured out, or not. So it‘s definitely also about looks, and while I don‘t condone judging people‘s looks or making fun of people for how they look, this is just a dumb post to have fun with and not meant to be taken seriously.
JD/Abbie - He reached and he knows it
Jill/Derick - He reached, but not by that much, they seem quite evenly matched now
Ben/Jessa - He reached and she saw the opportunity and took it. I think they work quite well together now actually
Jinger/Jeremy - Honestly, she reached and then she settled
Joe/Kendra - Equally matched
Josiah/Lauren - Equally matched, kinda make a good pairing now but were not ready to get married/didn‘t know each other that well I think
Joy/Austin - Equally matched, definitely had the major hots for each other and are pretty equal in their interests etc.
Jed/Katey - He reached, I think she was majorly influenced by her dad and convinced herself she was in love..
Justin/Claire - Eh, equal?
Zach/Whitney - He reached, equally matched now
Michael/Brandon - Equally matched
Erin/Chad - Equally matched
Alyssa/John - Equally matched, although he was very lucky she was ready to get out of that house
