Holy Crap, Lawson is Married.

Data, ESOQ, and When To Expect Baby #1.

On Thursday (?!), May 12, 2022, William “Lawson” Bates, 29, and Tiffany Lian Espensen, 23, tied the knot aboard a yacht in San Diego, California.  (Duggar Data totally called that they’d get married on a boat! Lol.)  Guests included a slew of Predictor People, including most of Bateses and a healthy sprinkling of Duggars.  (Oh, and don’t forget Tiffany’s family!)

People was first to report the nuptials.  Lawson told the tabloid—

“This day has superseded all expectations I have ever had. I could have never even dreamed of marrying someone so kind, sincere and passionate about life as Tiffany! She has the absolute most beautiful heart, and I’m so blessed that God chose to bring us together.”

Read on for a full data analysis!

Relationship Recap

Lawson + Tiffany met through the magic of social media.  Per Lawson, Tiffany had written an article about “faith in the spotlight,” which he “randomly” read.  (Here’s the article.)  Intrigued, he found Tiffany on Instagram a few days later, and “slid into her DMs.”  From there, they started talking on FaceTime “every day for a month,” until they met in–person.  Duggar Data would consider that ‘talking prior to meeting’ stage to be Lawson + Tiffany’s Pre–Courtship.  And after that, up until he proposed, would be their Courtship.

Okay…  Dates.  When did this happen?  Well, it seems they became “official” back in September 2020—September 21, 2020, to be exact.  Based on that, Duggar Data is going to use that as their Courtposal Date.  Counting back 1 Month, let’s use mid–August (August 16, 2020) as an Approximate Pre–C.S. Date, since we know they talked “for a month” before they met.

Duggar Data acknowledges that Lawson + Tiffany’s relationship might not’ve been a “courtship,” or at least wasn’t called that, but it is ultimately irrelevant.  We can still categorize the stages of their relationship as Pre–C.S., Courtship, Engagement, etc. The Bateses have been moving away from the “courtship” terminology, but the “talking,” officially dating, engaged, and married phases remain, more or less, the same.

Data gets easier after Lawson + Tiffany after they went public in Early 2021…  We known their exact Proposal Date (October 26, 2021) and, of course, the Wedding Date (May 12, 2022).

Effect on Bates Data  (Relationship Timeline)

Okay, let’s crunch some numbers!  Based on the Pre–Courtship, Courtposal, Proposal, and Weddings Dates discussed above, here’s how long Lawson + Tiffany spent at each relationship stage—

• Pre–Courtship   ~36 Days
• Courtship   400 Days
• Engagement   198 Days

And, the total time from Courtship to Marriage was 598 Days (1.64 Years).

How does this compares to Lawson’s Siblings?  Glad you asked…  Omitting Lawson + Tiffany’s data, it is Bates–typical for the Pre–C.S. to last 311 Days, Courtship to last 263 Days, and Engagement to last 141 Days.  Factoring the Lawson + Tiffany data back in, here’s how things shift—

• Average Pre–C.S.   280 Days  (–31 Days)
• Average Courtship   272 Days  (+9 Days)
• Average Engagement   147 Days  (+6 Days)
• Average CS to Marriage   424 Days  (+20 Days)  

As for records…  Lawson + Tiffany didn’t set any.  Their Pre–Courtship wasn’t the shortest; Michaela + Brandon’s was, at 31 Days.  Nor was their Courtship the longest; Josie + Kelton’s was, at 413 Days.  And their Engagement wasn’t the longest, either; Carlin + Evan’s was, at 245 Days.

Effect on Bates Data  (Age Gap / Age at C.S.)

Lawson’s DOB is July 27, 1992 and Tiffany’s is February 10, 1999.  Doing the math, the Age Gap is 2,389 Days (6.54 Years), with Lawson being older.  On their Courtposal Date, Lawson was Ave 28.15 and Tiffany was Age 21.61.

Again, let’s compare that to the rest of the Bates Data.  Omitting Law + Tiff’s data, a Bates–typical Age Gap is 2.33 Years, with the man being older, and a typical Age at Courtship is 23.22 for Males and 20.78 for Females.  Factoring Lawson + Tiffany’s data back in, here’s their impact—

• Average Age Gap   2.63 Years, Favoring The Man  (+110 Days)
• Average Age at C.S. (Males)   23.63 Years  (+150 Days)   
• Average Age at C.S. (Females)   20.85 Years  (+25 Days)     

Lawson set a new Bate record for Oldest at Courtship (Male), at 28.15 Years.  The record was previously held by Nathan (27.13 Years). 

Procreative Potential / ESOQ

Tiffany was adopted.  We know nothing about her biological mother.  Due to this, we’ll use the default Fertility Cut–Off for Tiffany—assuming she is fertile until Age 40.00.

Tiffany will be 40 Years Old on February 10, 2039.  She got married today, on May 12, 2022.  Doing the math, her Total Marital Fertility (TMF) (Wedding to Fertility Cut–Off) is 6,118 Days.  Here’s how that stacks up against the rest of the Bates Wives—

• Lawson + Tiffany (Espensen) Bates   6,118 Days
• Michaela (Bates) + Brandon Keilen   7,119 Days
• Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates   7,221 Days
• Nathan + Esther (Keyes) Bates   7,446 Days
• Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine   8,314 Days
• Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith  8,502 Days
• Katie (Bates) + Travis Clark   8,805 Days
• Gil + Kelly Jo (Callaham) Bates   8,810 Days
• Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart   8,820 Days  
• Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster   9,398 Days
• Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka   9,532 Days

As you can see, it’s a new record.  (Some of you are probably wondering why her TMF is so low.  It’s not; everyone else’s is just high.  The Bates Daughters have a late Fertility Cut–Off [Age 45.27], due to Kelly’s Data.  Similar deal with Esther, whose Mom last gave birth at Age 44.41.  And while Whitney’s Fertility Cut–Off is also the default [40.00], she got married a lot younger than Tiffany.)

But don’t fret, Lawson + Tiffany!  It’s all fine.  Assuming a Bates–typical pace, y’all still have an ESOQof11 Children.   

When To Expect Bates–Espensen #1

As of their Wedding Day, here’s what the Predictor forecasts—

• Baby News   October 11, 2022
• Sex Reveal   November 16, 2022
• Due Date   April 4, 2023
• Date of Birth   March 27, 2023      

It looks like Jana, JimBob, James, Abbie, JD, Gracie, Jer and Hannah all went to CA for the Lawson/Tiffan Bates wedding! And I think that‘s Laura deMaisie in the background talking to Evan Stewart? So she was there as well!

For a break in our depressing regular scheduled fundie content, let‘s make a stupid fun post about which fundie couples, in my opinion, reached, settled, or are evenly matched. Note that this is based not just on looks but on personalities and general kind of.. whether they have stuff figured out, or not. So it‘s definitely also about looks, and while I don‘t condone judging people‘s looks or making fun of people for how they look, this is just a dumb post to have fun with and not meant to be taken seriously.

JD/Abbie - He reached and he knows it

Jill/Derick - He reached, but not by that much, they seem quite evenly matched now

Ben/Jessa - He reached and she saw the opportunity and took it. I think they work quite well together now actually

Jinger/Jeremy - Honestly, she reached and then she settled

Joe/Kendra - Equally matched

Josiah/Lauren - Equally matched, kinda make a good pairing now but were not ready to get married/didn‘t know each other that well I think

Joy/Austin - Equally matched, definitely had the major hots for each other and are pretty equal in their interests etc.

Jed/Katey - He reached, I think she was majorly influenced by her dad and convinced herself she was in love..

Justin/Claire - Eh, equal?

Zach/Whitney - He reached, equally matched now

Michael/Brandon - Equally matched

Erin/Chad - Equally matched

Alyssa/John - Equally matched, although he was very lucky she was ready to get out of that house

Tori/Bobby - Equally matched

Carlin/Evan - Equally matched

Josie/Kelton - He reached big time

Katie/Travis - Equally matched, I think

Lawson/Tiffany - Difficult. He reached though

Nathan/Esther - He reached so fucking far