Abbie is Pregnant w/ Her and John’s 2nd Child!

Get The Data (and Predictions) Here.

On Mother’s Day (May 8, 2022), Abbie (Burnett) Duggar announced that she’s expecting Baby #2, a boy, in “late summer.”  She married John David Duggar on November 3, 2018, and so far they’ve had 1 Daughter, Gracie (b. 2020).

[Permalink to Pregnancy Announcement]

Read on for all the data! 

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

Per the Pregnancy Announcement, Duggar–Burnett #2 is due in “late summer.” Duggar Data would general defines “summer” as the months of June, July, and August, inclusive—but still, “late summer” is pretty vague.  So, let’s take a look at the data, and see if it helps us narrow things down…

John + Abbie have had one prior pregnancy (Gracie).  That time, they revealed the pregnancy on August 1, 2019.  Gracie’s Due Date was January 12, 2020—so, Abbie was 116 Days Along when they went public the pregnancy.  If Abbie was also 116 Days Along this time around, her May 8, 2022 would correspond to a Due Date of October 17, 2022.  Obviously, that’s not right, since they said the baby’s due in “late summer.”  So…  The data doesn’t help us much.  

With nothing but “late summer” to go on, Duggar Data is going to use August 31, 2022 as Abbie’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), for the time being.  I chose that date because it’s about as “late summer” as you can get.

Projected DOB + Child Spacing

With Gracie, Abbie gave birth 5 Days Early (on January 7, with a Due Date of January 12 per Counting On).  With an ADD of August 31—and assuming she delivers 5 Days Early again—that’s a Projected DOB of August 26, 2022.

Grace was born on January 7, 2020.  If Duggar–Burnett #2 arrives on August 26, 2022, that’s a Child Spacing of962 Days (2.63 Years).  This is one of the longest Child Spacings ever for a 2nd–Generation Duggar Couple.  (Actually, the only longer one is the Theoretical Spacing for Sam–to–River Bliss Dillard, had Jill not miscarried.  That would’ve been ~1,711 Days.)

Abbie suffered hyperemesis gravidarum (HE)—severe, persistent nausea and vomiting, far beyond typical “morning sickness”—with her 1st Pregnancy (w/ Gracie).  John + Abbie haven’t revealed if she is similarly ill during Pregnancy #2, but there’s a good chance she is, since HE often recurs.

Early, Late, or What?

Definitely late.  Based on John + Abbie’s Wedding–to–Firstborn Spacing (430 Days) and the current (until their Pregnancy Announcement) Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier (1.5688x), the Duggar–Burnetts would have been expected to have a Gracie–to–Baby #2 Spacing of 675 Days.  If so, they would’ve welcomed Baby #2 on November 12, 2021.

Obviously, that didn’t happen!  Now that they’ve announced, it looks like they will welcome Baby #2 on August 26, 2022 instead, which is 287 Days (or 9.4 Months) Later than the 2nd Child Multiplier’s forecast…  That’s definitely late!

Impact on 2nd Child Multiplier

Grace arrived 430 Days after John + Abbie’s Wedding.  Duggar–Burnett #2 is expected to arrive 962 Days after Gracie.  Comparing 962 Days to 430 Days, John + Abbie’s 2nd Child Spacing is 2.2372xtheir Marriage–to–#1 Spacing.

Immediately prior to John + Abbie’s 2nd Pregnancy Reveal, the Duggars’ 2nd Child Multiplier was 1.5688x, on average.  Each Duggar Couple’s Multiplier— from largest to smallest—is as follows…

• 2.5294x   Jill + Derick
• 2.2372x   John + Abbie
• 1.9524x   Joy + Austin
• 1.8755x   Joe + Kendra
• 1.5199x   John + Anna
• 1.2439x   Jessa + Ben
• 1.1320x   Jinger + Jeremy
• No Data   Jed + Katey, Jer + Hannah, Justin + Claire

As you can see, John + Abbie’s 2nd Child Multiplier is second largest, after Jill + Derick’s.  When John + Abbie’s is averaged in with the rest, the Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier shifts from 1.5688x to 1.7131x(+9%).

Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

John + Abbie’s Procreative Pace (PP) is now based entirely on their Projected Grace–to–Baby #2 Spacing, since that’s their only Non–Firstborn Spacing.

As a result, their Procreative Pace (PP) for any future pregnancies is now 962 Days (or 2.63 Years). Immediately after Gracie’s Birth, their Estimated PP—based on their Firstborn Spacing and the Duggars’ 2nd Child Multiplier—was 766 Days (196 Days Faster).  As a result, they are expected to have children a lot slower than before.  With a 962–Day PP, their ESOQ is now 5 Children—a modest quiver, by Duggar standards!  That’s down from 6 Children, right after Gracie’s birth.  

When To Expect Duggar–Burnett #3

Based on available data, here’s what the Predictor expects—

• Baby News   November 30, 2024
• Due Date   April 19, 2025
• Projected DOB   April 14, 2025

For a break in our depressing regular scheduled fundie content, let‘s make a stupid fun post about which fundie couples, in my opinion, reached, settled, or are evenly matched. Note that this is based not just on looks but on personalities and general kind of.. whether they have stuff figured out, or not. So it‘s definitely also about looks, and while I don‘t condone judging people‘s looks or making fun of people for how they look, this is just a dumb post to have fun with and not meant to be taken seriously.

JD/Abbie - He reached and he knows it

Jill/Derick - He reached, but not by that much, they seem quite evenly matched now

Ben/Jessa - He reached and she saw the opportunity and took it. I think they work quite well together now actually

Jinger/Jeremy - Honestly, she reached and then she settled

Joe/Kendra - Equally matched

Josiah/Lauren - Equally matched, kinda make a good pairing now but were not ready to get married/didn‘t know each other that well I think

Joy/Austin - Equally matched, definitely had the major hots for each other and are pretty equal in their interests etc.

Jed/Katey - He reached, I think she was majorly influenced by her dad and convinced herself she was in love..

Justin/Claire - Eh, equal?

Zach/Whitney - He reached, equally matched now

Michael/Brandon - Equally matched

Erin/Chad - Equally matched

Alyssa/John - Equally matched, although he was very lucky she was ready to get out of that house

Tori/Bobby - Equally matched

Carlin/Evan - Equally matched

Josie/Kelton - He reached big time

Katie/Travis - Equally matched, I think

Lawson/Tiffany - Difficult. He reached though

Nathan/Esther - He reached so fucking far