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Local Politics Breakdown: An Analysis of the Pawnee, Indiana City Council Race

By Nate Silver

The little-known Indiana city of Pawnee is a bit of a cypher, mathematically. While its population is nowhere near that of a major metropolis like Indianapolis, or even that of a minor state regional center like Fort Wayne or South Bend, Pawnee somehow manages to defy typical statistical analysis that would fit a locale of its size and stature. Just one example: Despite being a small to midsize Midwestern town with a vocal Evangelical presence, the town is somehow able to host three gay bars, as well as a financially successful night club.

The same would seem to hold true for the city’s election data, particularly in this year’s city council election between locale candy magnate Bobby Newport and noted waffle aficionado (and deputy director of the city parks department) Leslie Knope. While initial analysis of the election seemed to indicate an easy victory for Newport, the race has since developed into a statistical dead heat.

Geographically, the city should have been an easy play for Newport. As Pawnee’s City Council eschews districts, any candidate needs broad appeal to be even remotely viable. With Newport’s overall 61/32 favorability rating, including an astronomical 78/12 favorability rating among seniors, he easily fits the bill. In addition, his popularity in the wealthy Pawnee neighborhoods along the border with Eagleton, as well as the working class residents of the Sweetums Slum area (most of whom rely on work in Newport’s factory to survive on meager diets of noodles and gruel) gave him a enviable appeal across demographics.

These strengths, along with Knope’s daunting 59% unfavorable rating, would normally enable a campaign to coast, despite Knope receiving the valuable endorsement of popular retiring Councilman Bradley Pilner. Yet recent days have seen the Knope campaign make a remarkable turnaround following a strong debate performance that rapidly closed the gap between the two candidates. Knope’s performance also elimated the chances of potential spoiler candidate Brandi Maxxxx, who until that point had been winning over a sizable portion of Pawnee’s coveted pervert demographic. Further goodwill shone on the Knope campaign with the stunning semi-endorsement of his own opponent by Newport following the death of his father, Sweetums founder Bobby Newport Sr.

Little historical precedent exists for elections where one candidate endorses their opponent, though the 1976 Pawnee City Council race between George Costelle and cult leader Azu the Succulent does offer a close parallel, as Costelle became a follower of Zorp the Surveyor and joined Azu’s group of followers, the Reasonabilists, one week before the election. Costelle was offered up as a virgin sacrifice and lost the election by eight points.

With current polls placing the race within the margin of error, politicos are expected to be watching this race late into the night and a lengthy recount is a possibility. Push comes to shove, Newport should be considered a marginal favorite due to his extensive resources, which should be greatly enhanced by Pawnee voters’ willingness to be bribed with candy.

*Article not actually written by Nate Silver.

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