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Simulating Many Scenarios of an EpidemicBack when the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to be taken se

Simulating Many Scenarios of an Epidemic

Back when the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to be taken seriously by the American public, 3blue1brown’s Grant Sanderson released a video about epidemics and exponential growth. (It’s excellent — I recommend watching it if you’re still a little unclear on how things are got so out of hand so quickly in Italy and, very soon, in NYC.) In his latest video, Sanderson digs a bit deeper into simulating epidemics using a variety of scenarios.

Like, if people stay away from each other I get how that will slow the spread, but what if despite mostly staying away from each other people still occasionally go to a central location like a grocery store or a school?

Also, what if you are able to identify and isolate the cases? And if you can, what if a few slip through, say because they show no symptoms and aren’t tested?

How does travel between separate communities affect things? And what if people avoid contact with others for a while, but then they kind of get tired of it and stop?

These simulations are fascinating to watch. Many of the takeaways boil down to: early & aggressive actions have a huge effect in the number of people infected, how long an epidemic lasts, and (in the case of a disease like COVID-19 that causes fatalities) the number of deaths. This is what all the epidemiologists have been telling us — because the math, while complex when you’re dealing with many factors (as in a real-world scenario), is actually pretty straightforward and unambiguous.

The biggest takeaway? That the effective identification and isolation of cases has the largest effect on cutting down the infection rate. Testing and isolation, done as quickly and efficiently as possible.

See also these other epidemic simulations: Washington PostandKevin Simler.

Note: Please keep in mind that these are simulations to help us better understand how epidemics work in general — it’s not about how the COVID-19 pandemic is proceeding or will proceed in the future.

Source:Kottke


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citymaus: “our new covid-19 reality shows that people can change behavior.” bogotá, colombia expandecitymaus: “our new covid-19 reality shows that people can change behavior.” bogotá, colombia expandecitymaus: “our new covid-19 reality shows that people can change behavior.” bogotá, colombia expande

citymaus:

our new covid-19 reality shows that people can change behavior.”

  • bogotá, colombia expanded bikeways. photo: fernando vergara
  • part of park avenue in manhattan was closed to vehicle traffic on march 27 to give pedestrians more space. photo: carlo allegri
  • markings on pathways in a dublin park encourage people to keep their distance. photo: brian lawless

read more: “the magic of empty streets.” nytimes, 08.04.2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-tips-new-york-san-francisco.html

https://www.spur.org/news/2020-04-08/magic-empty-streets


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This is going to be sweeeet! Legacy of Cool is doing a full blown denim documentary, travelling all round the world to different mills laundries and meeting all the denim folk who keep blue. 

#legacy of cool    #self edge    #selvedge    #levis vintage    #wrangler    #indigo    #stylem    #timeless    #second skin    #global    #documentary    #rope dye    
The “pointy S” symbol, frequently found in the notebooks of grade school students throughout the worThe “pointy S” symbol, frequently found in the notebooks of grade school students throughout the wor

The“pointy S” symbol, frequently found in the notebooks of grade school students throughout the world, is of uncertain origin. From band logos to Superman, there is little information yet on the exact birthplace of the symbol.

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Beautiful Vietnam, in southeast Asia. (@travellingthroughtheworld IG)

Libraries of the world: 1) Munich 2) Rio de Janeiro 3) Porto 4)Venice 5)Dublin 6) Edinburgh 7) Tianjin 8) Gorlitz 9) Amerstdam 10) Zhongshuge. (@travellingthroughtheworld IG)

#Worldnews #CNN #zoro14k #mundial #global #olympics #breakingnews #Italy #Global #fashion #newcollection #hats #soccer #Trap #trapmusic #italiano #milan #mfw #mensfashion #editorial #womensfashion #blog #fashionblogger

#fashion    #global    #italiano    #worldnews    #newcollection    #trapmusic    #olympics    #soccer    #breakingnews    #womensfashion    #zoro14k    #mensfashion    #editorial    #mundial    #fashionblogger    
Mindful Monday #Chicago #mindfulness #education #engage #diverse #learn #experience #empathy #think

Mindful Monday #Chicago #mindfulness #education #engage #diverse #learn #experience #empathy #think #global #world #tomorrow #chicagogram #wealllivehere (at The Ogden International School of Chicago)


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Mindful Monday #Chicago #mindfulness #education #engage #diverse #learn #experience #empathy #think

Mindful Monday #Chicago #mindfulness #education #engage #diverse #learn #experience #empathy #think #global #world #tomorrow #chicagogram #wealllivehere (at The Ogden International School of Chicago)


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By John Dunning, Director of Product Management

We’ve always got something new in the works at Yahoo Mail …

Most recently, our mission has been to bring Yahoo Mail to all—no matter where you are, what language you speak, or what device you’re using. And today, we’re happy to announce the expansion of the new Yahoo Mail desktop experience to 30 additional languages, including:

  • Arabic 
  • Bengali
  • Bulgarian
  • Chinese (Simplified)
  • Croatian
  • Czech
  • Danish
  • Dutch
  • Estonian
  • Finnish
  • Filipino
  • Greek
  • Hebrew
  • Hungarian
  • Italian
  • Korean
  • Latvian
  • Lithuanian
  • Malaysian
  • Norwegian
  • Polish
  • Portuguese
  • Russian
  • Serbian
  • Slovak
  • Slovenian
  • Swedish
  • Thai
  • Ukrainian
  • Vietnamese

If you’ve been using classic Mail with one of the above languages, starting today you’ll be welcomed to the new desktop experience when you sign in to mail.yahoo.com. You’ll be able to pick a colorful theme, easily find photos and documents you’ve sent/received, and enjoy more new features in the fastest and most responsive version of Yahoo Mail yet.

Day in and day out, Yahoo Mail’s mission spans the world. Wherever you live, whichever language you speak, we’ll continue to work on connecting you with the people you care about.

We couldn’t be more excited about it. 

#globalstyle #global style men #style #styleblogger #styleinspiration #mensstyle #mensstreetwear (at

#globalstyle #global style men #style #styleblogger #styleinspiration #mensstyle #mensstreetwear (at New York, New York)
https://www.instagram.com/p/B9RwpepJbxv/?igshid=1rq18meutgck0


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What happens when you combine a once-in-a-lifetime voice with an unstoppable, uplifting spirit? Well

What happens when you combine a once-in-a-lifetime voice with an unstoppable, uplifting spirit? Well, that’s easy … you get Joan Baez. Since 1959 Joan’s music has been heard around the globe - pushing for social change, inspiring the down

trodden, and bringing joy. She’s a Push Girl for not only standing up to the forces of repression but also in using her talent to foster hope, beauty, and love.

Tell your friend she’s got a little Joan Baez in her. Reblog now to give her a little push.

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Kylie Minogue has fought hard to throw off accusations that she’s little more than a cardboard pop s

Kylie Minogue has fought hard to throw off accusations that she’s little more than a cardboard pop star manufactured by a label. And given her international fame, it’s safe to say she’s come out on top. Kylie is the recipient of scores of awards, including an Order of the British Empire, and she’s become a worldwide musical icon, particularly for the gay community. After a breast cancer diagnosis in 2005, Minogue pursued aggressive treatment and pushed herself right back on stage. She’s not the kind of lady to let a few rogue cells get her down.

Tell your friend she’s got a little Kylie Minogue in her. Reblog now to give her a little push.


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Who are you? Are you a Thief?

John 10:1, “Verily, verily, I say unto you, He that entereth not by the door into the sheepfold, but climbeth up some other way, the same is a thief and a robber.”

What was Jesus saying here when He made such a bold statement and what door was He talking about? By the way, where have I entered? Did I enter through this door that He’s refering to or am I classified as a thief and a robber?

Jesus was referring to entrance into the Church How did you become a part of the Church, were you baptized (submerged) in water, in the name of Jesus Christ so that your sins were washed away, or are you still in sin because you were baptized in titles and therefore, you are still living in sin? If the latter describes the course of action you have taken, sorry my friend, He’s talking about you.

John 10: 9, “ I am the door: by me if any man enter in, he shall be saved, and shall go in and out, and find pasture.”

You see, you HAVE TO enter the kingdom through Him. In Acts 2: 37-38, the question was asked and the answer given about how a person can be saved. “…Men and brethren, what shall we do? Then Peter said unto them, Repent, and be baptized every one of you in the name of Jesus Christ for the remission of sins, and ye shall receive the gift of the Holy Ghost.” Yes, in His name and not titles. After all, what use are titles when we are admonished by God’s word in this way, “And whatsoever ye do in word or deeddo all in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God and the Father by him.”- Col. 3:17.

If you are walking in a crowd at the carnival or airport with your dad and all of a sudden, there’s a surge in the crowd, and you get separated from him, shouting for dad may not help because many dads are in the crowd and your dad may have turned back to look for you, when you went forward looking for him. When you get to a security post to seek assistance, when you tell them you can’t find your dad they’re going to need his full name and if you don’t know your dad’s name, they won’t be able to page him to come and get you. If they knew his name, they could simply page him to come get you at the security post; problem solved. It’s a somewhat similar situation. When you’re in trouble, are you going to shout “father, son and holy ghost help me” or are you going to call on the name of Jesus until your deliverance comes? Use the name, best results!

Furthermore, the Word also says, “Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved.”_ Acts 4:12. Therefore, as Jesus Christ had said, you are a thief and a robber if you “entered” by some other means and we all know that thieves and robbers cannot enter Heaven, so it would now be wise to turn back and enter through “The Door”, Jesus Christ before the the door closes and time changes to eternity.

The Lord bless you continually my friends.

Our hearts go out to ALL who have been adversely affected by this global situation.We send our lov

Our hearts go out to ALL who have been adversely affected by this global situation.
We send our love & support.
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#ukraine #spreadthelove #ukrainetoday #ukraineflag #citrine #calcite #hearts #worldpeace #crystalcommunity #worldevents #global #oneplanet #support #crystallove #shareyourheart #handsofspirit (at Hands of Spirit Gallery)
https://www.instagram.com/p/Caqg1lQum6y/?utm_medium=tumblr


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Democracy

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I guess I’ll die endlessly curious about other people’s basketball habits. 

All photos taken with some kind of smartphone, during the last couple of years.

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Locations:

1. Venice beach, Los Angeles, USA.

2. Kolonos, Athens, Greece. 

3. Calle Amargura, Havana, Cuba.

4. Merenwijk, Leiden, Netherlands.

5. Danao City, Cebu, Philippines.

6. Kenting National Park, Taiwan. 

7. Faliro, Attiki, Greece. 

8. Sabang, Cebu, Philippines. 

9. Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii, USA.

10. Looc, Cebu, Philippines. 

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Donald Trump’s global friends, frenemies, and enemies: a cheat sheet.

(photo credit: Jim Bourg / Getty / Chones / Dn Br / Shutterstock / Zak Bickel / The Atlantic)

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